Quantum technology is threatening Bitcoin encryption in just 2-3 years.

Rapid advancements in the field of quantum computing are raising growing concerns about the security of Bitcoin. Some experts now believe that Q-Day – the moment when quantum computers are powerful enough to break current encryption algorithms – could come much sooner than previously expected.

CEO David Carvalho of Naoris Protocol warns that within the next 2 to 3 years, quantum computers may be capable of breaking current advanced encryption algorithms. He also emphasizes the serious lack of preparedness of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies against this potential threat.

The global quantum race is accelerating

The quantum technology sector is developing at an unprecedented pace, as governments and global corporations pour billions of dollars into the race for an advantage in the next technological revolution.

On Thursday, the South Korean government announced a plan to invest about 650 billion won (equivalent to more than 480 million dollars) over the next 8 years to enhance the national quantum capabilities – including the development of high-performance computers.

Just three days earlier, the United Kingdom also committed to spending over $921 million to promote the application of quantum technology in many key areas such as energy to healthcare.

These large-scale investments are not just individual strategic moves, but also reflect a global trend. The Q1/2025 report from The Quantum Insider indicates that investment growth in quantum technology has skyrocketed by 125% compared to the same period last year, surpassing the $1.25 billion mark.

At the same time, quantum technology itself is rapidly evolving, becoming increasingly complex and powerful – bringing the prospect of "Q-Day" closer than ever.

Quantum Threat to Modern Encryption

Most current encryption systems ( such as RSA) rely on operations that classical supercomputers can hardly solve. Specifically, RSA-2048 – a widely used 2048-bit encryption standard – is based on the difficulty of factoring extremely large integers – a task that traditional computers would take thousands of years to complete.

However, with the emergence of the qubit – the basic processing unit in quantum computers, quantum algorithms such as Shor have the ability to analyze large factors at an extraordinary speed, reducing the time to solve this problem from millennia to just a few hours or days.

Just last month, the Google Quantum AI team announced a shocking estimate: a quantum computer with fewer than one million qubits could breakdown RSA-2048 in less than a week. This makes the moment when current security becomes "ineffective" due to quantum – which seemed far away – now approaching faster than ever.

So the question is no longer "is RSA-2048 going to be broken or not?", but rather: how far are we before that actually happens?

Important breakthroughs driving quantum alarms

Last year, a research team from China led by Professor Wang Chao from Shanghai University made significant progress in the field of cryptographic analysis using quantum technology. They successfully broke the RSA 22-bit key using a quantum annealer – specifically the D-Wave system.

Although the 22-bit security level is still far from modern standards like RSA-2048, this success marks a leap forward from the previous record of 19-bit, demonstrating the practical scalability of quantum systems in the field of decryption. More importantly, it reflects the rapid development of cryptographic attack techniques in the quantum environment.

CEO David Carvalho of Naoris Protocol did not hide his concerns:

"A 22-bit key is clearly not a high security standard, but what is concerning is the speed of advancement – in a short time, it has risen from 19-bit to 22-bit. It is clearly just a matter of time before quantum computers can break down the encryption algorithms that are considered 'unbreakable'. And that time is narrowing rapidly. Assuming we have up to 5 more years to prepare is overly complacent – the reality may only be 24 to 36 months."

Carvalho is not the only one raising warnings. An increasing number of experts in the security and cryptocurrency industry are also speaking out, stating that immediate action is needed to prepare for the post-quantum future that is approaching closer every day.

Leaders Call for Preparation

Professor Michele Mosca from the University of Waterloo – one of the world's leading experts in quantum encryption – once warned that there is a 1 in 7 chance that the foundational public key encryption systems will be broken down by 2026.

In the face of that threat, a number of major technology and financial organizations such as IBM, Microsoft, and SWIFT are urgently advising global businesses to plan for the transition to post-quantum encryption (Post-Quantum Cryptography – PQC) to ensure long-term security.

"Every day that passes, cybercriminals get closer to the ability to infiltrate critical systems. And once hacked, the losses are irreversible. We are at a threshold where the sense of security is completely misleading," warned David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol.

However, the question arises: Is this threat really that urgent? How much longer do we have before the current encryption is broken – and what will be the "spark" that triggers that event?

Distinguishing Hype from Reality

Although the successful analysis of the 22-bit RSA key is a noteworthy milestone, it should be viewed in the appropriate context.

Although 22-bit is an advancement over the previous 19-bit milestone, the gap from here to breaking RSA-2048 is still immense. The difference lies not in the absolute numbers, but in the nature of the exponential growth of complexity: as the key length increases, the requirements for the number of qubits and error correction also surge – not linearly but exponentially.

The actual breakdown of RSA-2048 would require the emergence of a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC: a machine powerful enough to run Shor's algorithm, with high fault tolerance and stable operation over long periods.

Machines like these still pose a tremendous technical challenge. Many experts predict they may not appear until the end of the 2030s – or even later.

However, the main concern is the sudden acceleration of recent quantum breakthroughs. They pose an urgent requirement for organizations, especially in the field of cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, to have a proactive strategy – starting now – to prepare for the inevitable Q-Day, although the timing is still unclear.

Minh Anh