Analysis of the Timing Prediction for Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval and Its Impact on the Bull Run Initiation

1. Prediction of ETF Approval and Bull Run Start Time

Based on the current market situation and historical experience, the following predictions can be made regarding the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF and the start time of the bull run:

1. January 2024: Bitcoin Spot ETF application approved
2. April 2024: Bitcoin Spot ETF officially takes effect
3. July 2024: Bitcoin bull run officially starts
4. September 2024: The Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle, implementing monetary easing policies.

This prediction takes into account multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the Bitcoin halving cycle, and market expectations. It is expected that the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the market.

2. Market Reaction After ETF Approval

Based on the historical experience of gold ETFs being approved, the Bitcoin Spot ETF may see the following situations after approval:

1. Before the ETF approval, the market will have a continuous bullish expectation.
2. After the ETF approval, the price will have a slight surge.
3. Shortly after the ETF begins trading, there may be a significant decline, potentially falling below the price before.

However, the approval of the ETF does not necessarily lead to a bull run. The current global economic environment and monetary policy remain tight, and continuous capital inflows may face challenges. The ETF influences market sentiment and on-site funds more than it directly triggers large-scale new capital entry.

3. Historical Review and Comparison with Current Situation

Gold ETF through the process

• March 2003: The world's first gold ETF was established in Australia.
• October 2004: SEC approved the first gold ETF in the United States (GLD)
• November 2004: GLD officially started trading

At that time, the US economy was relatively stable, and the monetary policy was relatively loose, laying the foundation for the success of the gold ETF.

Bitcoin ETF development history

• February 2021: The world's first Bitcoin ETF approved in Canada
• October 2021: The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the United States was launched.
• July 2023: BlackRock and other institutions apply for a Bitcoin Spot ETF

Current economic environment

Compared to the period when gold ETFs were introduced in 2004, the current global economy faces more challenges:

• Inflationary pressures still exist
• Economic growth is weak
• The monetary policy is still in a tightening cycle.

These factors may limit the short-term market performance of Bitcoin ETF after approval.

Conclusion

The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF will be an important milestone in the development of the cryptocurrency market, but its impact on the market needs to be considered in conjunction with various factors such as the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy. Although the possible approval of the ETF may bring short-term benefits, a truly sustained bull run may still require the emergence of more favorable conditions. Investors should closely monitor market trends and rationally assess the potential impacts of the ETF approval.