2025 Crypto Market Outlook: 4 Major Scenarios and 11 Predictions

Since 2024, the crypto market has gone through several important stages: the launch of a certain ETF on January 10, Bitcoin hitting an all-time high, altcoin season, fluctuations in the second/third quarter of 2024, Bitcoin breaking $50,000 and $60,000, currently hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that the altcoin season usually begins when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first round is when Bitcoin hits $69,000 but fails to break through, the next round is likely to be a push for $100,000.

The next round of altcoin season is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025, after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000. However, it could also replicate the situation of the second/third quarter of 2024 in the coming months. Here are four possible scenarios:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins are generally rising. Continuing to rise in 2025, entering a new round of altcoin season, repeating the scenario of the past two months with a possibility of 30-40%.

   Strategy: Buy the dips of outstanding altcoins.

2. Bitcoin is up, while altcoins have a smaller increase. Similar to the situation in 2024, but more bullish with a 50-60% possibility of (.

   Strategy: Selectively buy well-performing altcoins, avoid popular tracks, and look for potential coins.

3. Bitcoin is rising, while altcoins are generally falling with a possibility of 20-30% ).

   Strategy: Reduce or liquidate long-term stagnant altcoins.

4. Bitcoin and altcoins have generally declined, the market has peaked with a possibility of 10-20%.

Due to macroeconomic benefits, the breakthrough of the new historical high for Bitcoin may not take as long as it did in 2024. Now, the new administration has brought new attention to digital assets, and the next President of the United States frequently talks about Bitcoin, making it easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin.

This regime change is extremely important. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to maintain good momentum in 2025. The situation with altcoins is similar but somewhat different.

Overall, the increase in Bitcoin in 2025 may exceed that of 2024. Although altcoins may experience a decline, the drop may be smaller than in 2024.

Risk Factors

1. Cycle top: currently far from being reached, but needs continuous assessment.

2. Bitcoin Reserve Plan: If completely ignored, it will be bearish, but it is more likely to be delayed.

3. Supply Risk: The risk of large Bitcoin holders selling off always exists.

4. Macroeconomic Risk: The extent of interest rate cuts may be small, but as long as interest rates continue to decline, it will benefit digital assets.

Areas and Tokens Worth Paying Attention To

1. AI: The next wave may be coming soon. Preferred application technologies, Swarms, gaming, consumer AI, etc.

2. DeFi: continues to be an important narrative, but the investment difficulty is high.

3. L1 Public Chains: May make a comeback, a field that has been overlooked but holds great opportunities.

4. NFT and game tokens: NFT tokens are worth paying attention to, and it's important to dig deep into the upcoming game projects that will issue tokens.

5. Others: data tokens, Meme, DePIN, Ordinals, traditional DeFi, etc.

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A certain large company will implement the DePIN project in some way.

2. A certain exchange will lose market share of the largest exchange.

3. Metaverse tokens gain new life with advancements in VR.

4. ICOs are rising again.

5. There will be no altcoin season on the Ethereum chain.

6. The price of a certain L1 public chain has reached double digits.

7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to the emergence of more staking yield products.

8. Big-name artists use NFTs and tokens to maintain their fans.

9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000.

10. More L1 project founders/CEOs resign.

11. A certain L1 public chain has lost in the competition with other L1s.