In the recently concluded August, the Bitcoin market showed a relatively calm trend. Although there were some small fluctuations, it remained within a certain range overall, failing to form a clear trend direction.

Looking back at historical data, we find an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin has never achieved positive returns for two consecutive months in August and September. Typically, the market first undergoes a round of rapid adjustments, followed by a significant rise in the fourth quarter of bull market years.

Based on this pattern, market participants are closely watching the upcoming trends. If there is a significant decline within the next one to two months, it may be the last deep correction before the big market movement at the end of the year. Conversely, if the market remains relatively stable, the possibility of a big cycle peak arriving earlier cannot be ruled out.

It is worth noting that October and November have traditionally been months of relatively stable performance for Bitcoin, and investors usually increase their risk exposure during this period. However, considering the uniqueness of this year's market, it remains to be seen whether this pattern still applies.

Based on historical monthly return data, we can see the performance of Bitcoin each month from 2013 to 2025 (up to this August). Among them, the average return rates for October and November reached 21.89% and 46.02%, respectively, ranking at the top. This data undoubtedly provides valuable references for investors.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture. The dynamic changes in the Ethereum (ETH) staking withdrawal mechanism, along with factors such as the Federal Reserve's cancellation of the regulatory plan for innovative activities, could have profound impacts on the market. Investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor these potential market drivers.

In the face of the current market environment, how should investors respond? Should they wait for the potential year-end rally or prepare for a possible market reversal? These questions are worth our in-depth consideration and discussion. Regardless, maintaining rationality and caution in the cryptocurrency market is always a wise choice.