XRP falls below the key support of 3 USD! The technical indicators show a potential dip to 2.65 USD in the short term, and long positions need to hold the 2.78 defense line | XRP price prediction

After failing to hold the 3.12 USD resistance level, XRP has continued to pull back, currently trading below 2.95 USD and has broken below the 100-hour moving average support. The hourly chart shows that the rising channel has broken, with the key support moving down to 2.78 USD. If it cannot reclaim the 2.98 USD resistance level, it may further dip to the 2.65 USD target range. Both the MACD and RSI indicators show that short positions are dominant, and it is recommended that encryption investors closely follow the market sentiment changes after the US stock market opens in the evening.

[Technical Breakout and Channel Analysis]

(Source: TradingView)

The XRP/USD hourly chart confirms a fall below the rising channel with a support at $3.00, and the price has fallen below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level (from the low of $2.781 to the high of $3.126). The current price is consolidating after forming a short-term low near $2.82, but the overall trading focus continues to shift downward. For cryptocurrency users engaged in "intraday swing trading" and "support and resistance breakout strategies", the range of $2.90-$2.98 will become the focal point of contention between bulls and bears.

[Key price levels and Fibonacci mapping]

On the upward resistance level:

• Initial resistance: $2.90 (psychological level)
• Core resistance level: $2.98 (corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci pullback level)
• Breakthrough targets: $3.05 → $3.12 → $3.20

On the downside support level:

• Immediate support: $2.825 (recent low)
• Core Defense: $2.78 (previous wave starting point)
• Breakdown target: $2.72 → $2.65 (short positions acceleration area)

[Technical indicators resonance look for short positions]

The hourly technical indicators have simultaneously issued a bearish signal:

• MACD: Located below the zero axis and the momentum bars continue to expand, indicating that the bearish momentum is strengthening.
• RSI: Continues to operate in the weak zone below the 50 neutral line, with no signs of oversold recovery.
• Moving Average System: The price has effectively fallen below the 100-hour simple moving average, and the short-term moving averages are in a short positions arrangement.

Conclusion

The short-term technical structure of XRP has weakened, with the $2.78 support becoming the last line of defense for bulls. If Bitcoin fails to lead a rebound in the evening and US stock risk assets are under pressure, XRP may test the $2.65 deep support area. It is recommended that holders enable the "trailing stop-loss strategy" and follow the recovery situation at $2.98, while medium to long-term investors may consider gradually positioning in the $2.65-$2.78 range. Subsequently, close attention should be paid to the progress of Ripple's ecosystem and the impact of SEC-related policy trends on the fundamentals.