ETH chart divergence flashes warning while onchain metric predicts rally to $4.5K

Key takeaways:

• Ether perpetual futures volume has surpassed Bitcoin, signaling a major shift in market interest.
• A bearish RSI divergence points to short-term exhaustion.

Ether (ETH) has traded just below the $4,000 resistance since December, 2025 and traders are uncertain whether it will be crossed any time soon. Despite the difficulty in overcoming $4,000, one key target for bulls lies at the +1σ active realized price band, currently hovering near $4,500. The metric tracks the average ETH cost, actively changing hands on the network.

Data from Glassnode indicated that this level acted as a ceiling during the March 2024 high and the 2020–21 cycle. A sustained breakout above this line has previously triggered rapid upward momentum, but also carries the risk of overheating and structural volatility.

Ether realized price bands. Source: Glassnode/XThe momentum is also reflected in ETH’s future markets. Cointelegraph reported that Ether perpetual futures have surpassed Bitcoin in volume dominance for the first time since 2022, marking the “largest” shift in trading focus toward ETH ever recorded. Likewise, pseudonymous trader Byzantine General recently revised his short-term outlook, stating,

“I think I'm wrong about ETH getting some short-term downside. It’s too strong, refuses to print any significant correction... It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment.”

Supporting this narrative, Ether’s liquidation maps reveal a dense cluster of short liquidations stacked just above $4,000. A clean move above this threshold could liquidate as much as $930 million in positions, potentially fueling a vertical move toward $4,500.

ETH/USDT Liquidation heatmap 3-day. Source: CoinGlassRelated: Here’s why some Ethereum traders expect ETH price to hit $16K this cycle

Bearish divergences raise short-term caution for ETH

While bullish momentum dominates the narrative, a key technical signal could derail the current rally. On both the four-hour and one-day timeframes, Ether’s price has printed new local highs, but the relative strength index (RSI) has failed to confirm the move, leading to bearish divergences.

Bearish divergences could be an early sign of buyer exhaustion, resembling patterns in previous local tops. Zooming out, the daily chart reveals a persistent bearish divergence that hasn’t fully resolved since ETH crossed above $3,500. A short-term pullback toward key support zones can’t be ruled out if price fails to follow through beyond $4,000 with convincing volume.

Ether four-hour, one-day chart bearish divergences. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf a bearish correction pans out, the immediate support range on the lower time frame remains just below $3,700, where a narrow fair value gap (FVG) is observed.

However, persistent bearish pressure could lead to Ether testing its long-term FVG between $3,200 and $3,300, leading to a bearish break of structure.

Related: ‘Largest’ volume skew for ETH confirms pivot to altcoins: Glassnode

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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