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‘Unique’ Bitcoin holder trend backs BTC’s next price discovery phase: Glassnode
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) price is hovering just a few percent below its all-time high of $111,800, and data from onchain analytics provider Glassnode reveals a “unique dynamic of this cycle,” as long-term holders continue to dominate wealth distribution, even at the later stage of the bull market. This behavior deviates sharply from previous cycles.
The data highlights that long-term holders (LTHs)—those holding BTC for over 155 days—are realizing significant profits, with their net realized profit/loss peaking at $930 million per day. Despite this, the overall supply held by LTHs is still rising. This is unprecedented at this stage of a rally, where LTH supply tends to decline due to widespread profit-taking
Further evidence of this late-cycle behavior appears in the realized profit/loss ratio, currently at 9.4, indicating that most long-term coins spent have been at substantial profit. Historically, such levels coincide with market euphoria and often precede a local or cycle top, although they can persist for months if demand sustains.
Related: Michael Saylor rejects crypto winter fears, says Bitcoin ‘going to $1M’
Bitcoin volatility tightens and could dictate price discovery
Bitcoin’s current volatility profile presents a paradox. On one hand, realized supply density, which measures how concentrated Bitcoin's ownership is near the current price, has climbed in recent weeks. This signals that several investors bought around the $105,000-$110,000 level. In such tightly clustered environments, minor price swings can trigger outsized emotional or trading responses, raising the risk of sudden volatility.
Likewise, data from Ecoinometrics shows Bitcoin’s weekly volatility has now dropped to the 10th percentile, lower than 90% of weeks in the last ten years, despite Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and rallying strongly in May. It could signal that Bitcoin may be entering a new regime, reflecting strong performance without erratic price swings*,* which is an attractive setup for institutional investors focused on risk-adjusted returns.
Related: How high can Bitcoin price go?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.